Bitcoin on-chain data just confirmed a “demand vacuum” that threatens to drag prices down to this uncomfortable range
On-chain data confirms a Bitcoin "demand vacuum" suggesting prices may fall to the $65,000-$75,000 range.Summary
Despite expectations for a 2025 "supercycle," Bitcoin is experiencing a "bear season" characterized by fading rallies and thinning retail participation, confirmed by on-chain data showing a structural shortfall in demand.
This shift is evidenced by US spot Bitcoin ETFs moving from net accumulation to net redemptions in Q4 2025, and key buyers like treasury companies pausing purchases. CryptoQuant data shows demand growth slipping below its trend line since October, indicating that the buying power was compressed around the ETF launch rather than representing broad, durable expansion. Furthermore, metrics from Alphractal show declining search interest and the strongest selling pressure since 2022.
Market strategists are divided on the future: some, like Julien Bittel, believe the current grind is a delay caused by macro debt cycles, suggesting a liquidity injection could extend the cycle. Others, like Jurrien Timmer, fear the 4-year cycle has structurally ended, potentially leading to a "year off" with Bitcoin targeting support between $65,000 and $75,000. Ending this bear market requires structural repair, specifically ETF flows stabilizing to net buying, demand growth reclaiming its trend line, funding rates recovering, and Bitcoin reclaiming its 365-day moving average.
(Source：CryptoSlate)