Bitcoin Analysts Debate ‘Sell in May’ Pattern

Crypto analysts are debating the likelihood of a significant Bitcoin sell-off in May, a pattern observed in the last two bear markets during U.S. mid-term election years (2018 and 2022). Some analysts, like Merlijn Enkelaar, believe this pattern could repeat in 2026, potentially driving Bitcoin prices down to $33,000 despite positive legislative and geopolitical factors. João Wedson suggests a capitulation phase is probable if Bitcoin stays below $78,000.

However, other analysts, such as Jeff Ko of CoinEx, argue that past 'sell in May' events were driven by specific macro shocks (Mt. Gox, China's ICO crackdown, Fed tightening, Terra/FTX collapses) rather than the calendar itself. Ko believes the market structure has fundamentally changed due to spot ETFs, corporate adoption, and legislative progress, making a repeat of 70%-80% drawdowns unlikely. He suggests a move to the mid-$60k or high-$50k range is more plausible under adverse conditions, but a drop to $33,000 would require systemic failure.

Michaël van de Poppe remains cautiously optimistic, noting that current price action doesn't indicate new lows but is consolidating. He highlights the $76,000 level as a crucial support; if broken, further declines are expected.

(Source：Cointelegraph)