Halving Cycle? Exchange Inflows? Forget Them — The Post-ETF Era Playbook

The article argues that Bitcoin's traditional four-year halving cycle is breaking due to new structural forces, primarily driven by spot ETF inflows and sovereign wealth allocations, which are now the primary anchors for price discovery. Speaking with James Check of Checkonchain Analytics, the analysis suggests that factors like exchange inflows are becoming less reliable indicators, as data collection is incomplete and long-term holder profit-taking often overshadows miner selling. Furthermore, the realized price metric is considered outdated due to the inclusion of lost coins; instead, cost bases clustering around $75,000–$80,000 are now seen as potential bear market floors. The shift indicates Bitcoin has matured into a liquidity-driven asset, where derivatives built on ETFs, particularly in the US, are the decisive factor, requiring investors to focus on liquidity regimes rather than historical cycle playbooks for 2026 and beyond.

(Source：BeInCrypto)