Bitcoin looks busy but 31% of its users vanished as ETFs bleed $4.5B in 2026

Bitcoin's network activity shows a significant divergence: while transaction volume remains stable, the number of unique active addresses has fallen by about 31% over six months, signaling a narrowing of on-chain participation. This suggests that fewer entities, such as custodians or large players, are responsible for the same amount of activity, possibly through batching or consolidation, masking thinner underlying user engagement. This trend is reinforced by persistently low transaction fees (around $0.24), indicating weak demand for blockspace, which delays the debate on fee-supported security as the block subsidy remains dominant.

The shift is partly explained by Bitcoin increasingly trading as a macro-sensitive asset, with retail participation reduced amid unstable risk appetite due to macro factors like tariff uncertainty. Furthermore, significant year-to-date outflows from US Bitcoin ETFs, totaling about $4.5 billion, shift exposure away from self-custody and onto-chain activity toward brokerage accounts. This suggests Bitcoin is evolving into a financial product with an institutional wrapper, while stablecoins absorb more day-to-day settlement on other chains.

Analysts foresee three paths: continued apathy with depressed metrics, a constructive liquidity thaw confirmed by returning active addresses, or a structural displacement where price rallies are driven by ETFs and macro factors while on-chain breadth remains muted, solidifying Bitcoin's role as a digital macro asset.

(Source：CryptoSlate)