Bitcoin has ended its $1.5B outflow streak, yet the trade driving inflows could vanish under pressure

US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $561.8 million in net inflows on February 2nd, halting a four-day streak of nearly $1.5 billion in outflows. However, analysts like Jamie Coutts of Real Vision argue that this inflow does not signify a return of conviction buying. Instead, the demand is primarily driven by a shrinking group of Treasury-style buyers executing delta-neutral basis trades, where institutions buy spot ETF shares and simultaneously short Bitcoin futures to profit from the basis convergence.

This activity, often involving authorized participants (APs) engaged in arbitrage or market makers hedging, results in flows that appear bullish in headline figures but are economically closer to a carry book than a risk-on bet. The sustainability of these inflows is questionable because basis trades are balance sheet-intensive, meaning the marginal demand is fragile and vulnerable to pressure from rising volatility or margin costs.

A durable Bitcoin bottom, according to this analysis, requires these carry traders to reverse their positions, not just slow their selling, and for unhedged, directional buyers to return. The key differentiator is observing derivatives markets: if inflows persist while futures shorts and basis spreads remain elevated, the flows are merely "plumbing"—market structure mechanics—rather than genuine net directional demand.

(Source：CryptoSlate)