Bitcoin supply guide: When holders sell, miners strain, and ETFs add pressure
Bitcoin's near-term supply dynamics are dictated by holder behavior, miner profitability stress, and ETF flows, rather than fixed issuance.Summary
Bitcoin is currently trading outside the $93,000–$110,000 overhead supply zone identified by Glassnode, placing the focus for the next quarter on tradable supply factors. Short-Term Holder (STH) cost basis sits near $98,300, acting as a key reference point for recent buyers. Simultaneously, miners face profitability strain, with forward hashprice below the estimated breakeven of $39.50/PH/s/day, leading to hashrate and difficulty adjustments. The third variable is spot Bitcoin ETF flows, which saw significant net outflows early in 2026, potentially releasing supply back into the market. The article emphasizes that while the 21 million supply cap and halving schedule are fixed, immediate supply shocks stem from miner sales (elastic supply lever) and holder distribution, with LTH supply currently trending lower.
(Source：CryptoSlate)