Whale Research Analysis: Market Outlook 2026 on Liquidity, Expectations, and the New Market Order

The market analysis for 2026 indicates that 2025 was marked by geopolitical uncertainty and a shift away from concentrated liquidity in equities/bonds towards commodities and FX, leading to reduced leverage and the end of the crypto bull market. Liquidity conditions tightened significantly in late 2025, evidenced by the Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) nearing the upper bound of its corridor and the SOFR–IORB spread remaining elevated, suggesting banks deployed buffers into financial investments (like margin debt) rather than commercial lending.

This environment of poorer-quality USD liquidity keeps long-term funding costs high, constraining long-term asset holding, exemplified by crypto's bearish phase. Consequently, investors adopted "strict diversification," reducing USD-pegged assets in favor of non-US markets and assets less tied to the dollar, like precious metals. The 'New Market Order' is defined by the weakening of assumptions regarding efficient supply chains and central bank backstops, replaced by 'regionalization' prioritizing security and redundancy.

For 2026, the focus shifts from linear growth bets to aligning exposures with three 'hard variables': supply constraints, capital expenditure (capex), and policy-driven order flow. This favors commodity-linked equities, AI infrastructure (compute, energy), defense/security themes, and select non-US markets. Crypto requires separate accounting: Bitcoin as a 'digital commodity' hedging against non-sovereign needs, while equity-like tokens face stricter risk hurdles. The core portfolio strategy involves using hard-constraint assets (commodities, infrastructure) as the core, supported by structural divergence plays like curve-structure trades in rates.

(Source：BeInCrypto)