BloFin Research Analysis: A Shift in Capital Preference From Bitcoin to Gold
Capital is shifting from Bitcoin to gold as the macro focus moves to institutional risk, favoring assets independent of USD leverage.Summary
The analysis from BloFin suggests a capital preference shift from Bitcoin to gold in early 2026 because the prevailing macro narrative has moved from "growth and inflation" to "institutional and governance risk." This environment favors hard assets like gold, which compete for an "independence premium," while major cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH are increasingly trading like high-volatility dollar risk assets due to their heavy reliance on USD-denominated leverage.
Bitcoin's price movements are heavily influenced by USD-settled derivatives and leverage, causing it to behave like a classic risk asset sensitive to liquidity and real rates when dollar liquidity tightens. Conversely, gold's price is driven more by spot supply/demand and retains monetary characteristics as an "offshore hard currency," making it less dictated by day-to-day fiscal and monetary settings, especially amid rising policy uncertainty.
This divergence is starkly illustrated by silver outperforming ETH significantly, as silver retains its independence premium while ETH is deeply tied to the dollar system. Until the share of USD leverage in crypto falls, or the macro focus shifts back to growth, crypto will likely continue to trade at a "dollar beta discount," making precious metals more favorable as assets detached from sovereign credit risk.
(Source：BeInCrypto)