TD Cowen cuts Strategy price target to $440, cites lower bitcoin yield outlook
TD Cowen lowered its one-year price target for Strategy to $440 due to increased equity issuance diluting expected bitcoin yield.Summary
Analysts at TD Cowen, led by Lance Vitanza, have reduced their one-year price target for bitcoin treasury company Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) from $500 to $440. This reduction is primarily attributed to a weaker outlook for bitcoin yield, defined as the percentage change in bitcoin held per fully diluted share, caused by ongoing dilution from issuing common and preferred stock to fund aggressive bitcoin accumulation.
The firm now projects Strategy will acquire about 155,000 bitcoins by fiscal year 2026, up from 90,000 previously, but this higher accumulation rate is funded more heavily by equity. Consequently, the expected BTC Yield for FY26E drops to 7.1% from 8.8%, leading to a lower BTC $ Gain estimate of $6.315 billion, which supports the $440 price target based on an unchanged 5x multiple.
Despite the near-term cut, TD Cowen maintains a constructive view on Strategy as a bitcoin exposure vehicle, noting the company aggressively bought bitcoin during the recent price pullback. Analysts expect a yield reversal in fiscal 2027 as bitcoin prices recover, forecasting BTC to reach $177,000 by December 2026 and $226,000 by December 2027. They also view the recent MSCI decision not to exclude Strategy from indexes as a positive near-term development.
(Source：The Block)