Bitcoin long-term holders just stopped selling, but a broken chart signal hides the truth
Long-term Bitcoin holders appear to be easing selling pressure, though this signal is complicated by large Coinbase wallet movements and ETF flows.Summary
The narrative that Bitcoin long-term holders (LTHs) are capitulating appears to be ending, with on-chain data suggesting they are easing off the sell button, evidenced by a small positive shift in LTH supply change metrics since mid-July. However, this data was initially skewed by a massive internal wallet migration at Coinbase in late November, which looked like selling on-chain but was merely an operational transfer, requiring analysts to adjust their metrics to isolate the true ownership change.
Despite this easing, analysts caution that this is an early nudge, not a definitive victory. Glassnode noted that LTHs were still net distributors as recently as late October. Furthermore, the market is now heavily influenced by spot Bitcoin ETF flows, where a single day of large outflows, like the one seen from BlackRock's IBIT in November, can dwarf modest shifts in LTH behavior.
Three potential paths forward exist: a real reset followed by recovery if selling fades and ETF flows stabilize; a wide, frustrating range if LTHs reduce selling but don't accumulate sustainably; or a return to distribution if selling ramps up again. Ultimately, if LTHs truly stop distributing, the market becomes less fragile by changing who the marginal seller is, setting the stage for the next market chapter, even if ETF volatility remains a major factor.
(Source：CryptoSlate)