Bitcoin Price Capped By Shifting Maco Conditions, Not Whale Selling

Bitcoin's price action between 2024 and 2025 demonstrated a divergence where improving onchain structure, marked by stablecoin inflows and BTC moving off exchanges, supported the rally from $42,000 to over $100,000. Valuation metrics like the MVRV 365-day ratio rose but remained below overheating thresholds. However, restrictive macroeconomic conditions, specifically elevated US 10-year real yields (averaging 1.7%-1.9% in 2024) and the Federal Reserve contracting its balance sheet, imposed valuation limits.

In 2025, despite onchain structure remaining broadly intact, Bitcoin experienced high volatility between $126,000 and $75,000 as stablecoin inflows declined by about 50%. Macro conditions remained decisive, with real yields staying high and the Fed balance sheet shrinking further. This contrasted with prior bull cycles that coincided with easing financial conditions.

The analysis concludes that Bitcoin has entered a regime where onchain metrics define market structure, but macroeconomic variables define valuation ceilings. Future price discovery will likely depend on falling real yields or renewed global liquidity growth rather than solely on exchange flows.

(Source：Cointelegraph)