Bitcoin miners are bleeding at $90,000, but the “death spiral” math hits a hard ceiling
Despite Bitcoin prices falling below the estimated $90,000 All-in Sustaining Cost (AISC), forced selling by miners is capped by daily issuance and finite inventory.Summary
The narrative that falling Bitcoin prices below the estimated $90,000 All-in Sustaining Cost (AISC) will trigger a massive miner sell-off, or "death spiral," is mathematically limited. AISC is complex, involving three layers: direct operating costs, sustaining capital expenditures (capex) to maintain efficiency against rising difficulty, and corporate/financing costs. When prices drop, miners have levers like shutting down marginal machines or curtailing operations before resorting to selling inventory.
The maximum forced selling pressure is constrained by two factors: the post-halving new BTC issuance (about 450 BTC per day) and the finite inventory miners hold (estimated at 50,000 BTC). A severe stress scenario involving selling all issuance plus tapping 30% of inventory over 90 days suggests a maximum sustained sell-off of around 617 BTC per day. This volume, while significant, is comparable to daily flows seen from other market participants, such as Bitcoin ETFs, suggesting the market has a capacity to absorb this pressure.
Ultimately, the extent of selling depends on execution—whether sales are public or OTC—and the trigger shifts from operational stress to forced liquidation when financing layers (debt covenants, collateral calls) dictate inventory sales. The article concludes that miners cannot create an infinite trapdoor under the price; their selling capacity is bounded by issuance and manageable inventory liquidation.
(Source：CryptoSlate)