Bitcoin metrics signal a breakout, but a massive “underwater” supply wall is secretly pinning prices below $93,000
Despite bullish metrics, Bitcoin faces structural stagnation pinned below $93,000 due to shallow liquidity and concentrated supply.Summary
Although Bitcoin shows positive indicators like low exchange reserves and significant ETF holdings (over $112 billion locked in US spot ETFs by late 2025), the market is experiencing structural stagnation, characterized by price chopping between $81,000 and $93,000.
This stagnation stems from shallow liquidity; while order book depth on top exchanges has recovered to pre-FTX levels, it remains concentrated on Binance, and inter-exchange circulation (IFP) has weakened, making prices sensitive to small orders. Furthermore, derivatives positioning shows open interest has reset, and a significant supply wall of roughly 6.7 million BTC trades underwater around the $93,000 to $120,000 range, which, combined with options expiry positioning, mechanically pins the spot price.
ETF flows are now volatile noise rather than a consistent directional signal, trading based on macro expectations. Unless liquidity dynamics change, Bitcoin is expected to remain range-bound through the first half of 2026 because the infrastructure's capacity has not scaled to match the large, but fragmented, capital.
(Source：CryptoSlate)