The Bitcoin-to-gold ratio fell 50% in 2025: Here’s why

The Bitcoin-to-gold ratio fell by approximately 50% in 2025, dropping from 40 ounces of gold per BTC in December 2024 to 20 ounces by Q4 2025. This was not due to a collapse in Bitcoin demand but rather a unique macroeconomic environment where gold significantly outperformed. Gold delivered a 63% year-to-date gain, breaking $4,000 per ounce, driven by substantial accumulation from central banks (254 tonnes through October) and record inflows into global gold ETFs (397 tonnes in H1 2025). This rally occurred despite restrictive monetary conditions and high real yields, suggesting gold acted as broad portfolio insurance amid elevated geopolitical uncertainty.

Conversely, Bitcoin demand softened in the second half of 2025. While spot Bitcoin ETFs initially saw assets under management (AUM) peak at $152 billion in July, they declined to $112 billion by year-end due to net outflows and slowing capital formation. Furthermore, on-chain data showed significant profit-taking, with long-term holders selling over 500,000 BTC, representing the most aggressive distribution since late 2024. Elevated real yields increased the opportunity cost for holding Bitcoin, which maintained a relatively high correlation with equities, causing it to lag gold, which benefited from safe-haven and reserve-driven demand.

(Source：Cointelegraph)