Liquidity Bitcoin Halving: Is Crypto’s Magic Cycle Finally Broken?

Crypto market liquidity is showing signs of drying up after months of expansion, primarily indicated by a contraction in the total global stablecoin market cap in November 2025, the first such drop in two years. Data also shows USDT supply slipping and fatigue in ETF and Digital Asset Trust (DAT) inflows, suggesting the market is cooling and potentially entering a self-funding phase rather than attracting fresh capital.

This liquidity crunch raises questions about the traditional Bitcoin cycle, which has historically relied on the Halving event to trigger major rallies. Some analysts argue that the 'Liquidity Bitcoin Halving' model is now invalid, suggesting that global liquidity, driven by the Fed and ETF flows, is the true catalyst, potentially extending the current cycle into 2026.

However, Adez Research disputes the strong correlation between Fed balance sheet changes and Bitcoin performance, arguing that major catalysts have already played out. They suggest the current cycle may be peaking, with a higher probability of a significant correction rather than another major rally. Ultimately, the market awaits a new catalyst, likely a macroeconomic reset involving lower interest rates and expanded global liquidity, to spark the next sustainable bull market, moving beyond reliance on speculative halving events.

(Source：BeInCrypto)