Is Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle dead or are market makers in denial?
Bitcoin's traditional four-year halving cycle is now considered less relevant than institutional liquidity flows, particularly ETF activity, in driving price.Summary
The traditional Bitcoin four-year cycle, driven by halving-induced scarcity, is losing relevance as the market is now dominated by institutional liquidity, according to Wintermute. Data shows that recent price movements correlate strongly with global crypto ETF inflows; for instance, a record $5.95 billion inflow preceded Bitcoin's climb to a new all-time high near $126,000. The daily supply from the halving (around 450 new coins) is dwarfed by institutional capital absorption, with a single day's ETF inflow potentially exceeding a week's new supply. Stablecoins further contribute to this liquidity-driven economy by providing base money and collateral. This shift means price discovery is governed by capital flows—especially US ETF activity—rather than block rewards, leading to shorter, sharper liquidity cycles instead of predictable accumulation phases. While the halving still impacts miner economics, the market's tempo is now set by the Federal Reserve, ETF desks, and stablecoin issuers, suggesting the halving cycle is demoted, not dead, as Bitcoin matures into a liquidity-sensitive asset class.
(Source：CryptoSlate)