Analysts Expect Strong Q3 for Coinbase (COIN) But Disagree Sharply on Its Future

Wall Street analysts largely expect Coinbase (COIN) to report strong third-quarter earnings, with estimates showing significant year-over-year growth in both EPS and revenue. However, while firms like JP Morgan, Barclays, and Compass Point agree on current strength in blockchain rewards, USDC yields, and trading activity, they disagree sharply on Coinbase's long-term profitability and the value of its strategic initiatives.

JP Morgan is the most bullish, upgrading the stock and projecting a high price target based heavily on the potential launch of a Base token, which could add substantial equity value. JP Morgan also sees upside from funneling USDC rewards to paid Coinbase One subscribers. In contrast, Barclays shares the positive Q3 revenue outlook but maintains a neutral rating due to market multiple compression. Compass Point remains skeptical, maintaining a 'Sell' rating due to concerns that lower-margin subscription revenues, coupled with USDC and staking payouts, are eroding profitability, and they view competition for the Deribit acquisition as increasing.

All analysts agree that USDC is an increasingly vital profit center, but they diverge on how much of that revenue Coinbase can retain as it adjusts reward structures. Ultimately, the upcoming earnings report will test whether the market favors the growth narrative driven by new ventures like Base or the concerns over margin compression.

(Source：CoinDesk)