Gold is not acting like a safe haven, so what does “digital gold” even mean for Bitcoin?
Both Bitcoin and gold recently failed to act as safe havens, with macroeconomic factors like yields and inflation impacting their performance more than geopolitical events.Summary
Recent market behavior indicates that neither Bitcoin nor gold fulfilled their roles as safe-haven assets during a period of geopolitical tension. Investors initially sold off both assets, focusing instead on repricing inflation and interest rates. While Bitcoin saw a rebound following de-escalation comments regarding Iran, this was driven by relief rather than a return to its “digital gold” narrative. Gold experienced more significant damage, with investors using gold ETFs to raise cash. The primary driver remains macroeconomic conditions, particularly US Treasury yields and oil prices, with inflation expectations playing a crucial role. Bitcoin is currently behaving more like a high-beta macro asset, and its ETF inflows have slowed. For a sustained recovery, yields need to stabilize, oil prices need to fall, Bitcoin ETF flows need to turn positive, and gold needs to avoid further ETF withdrawals. The market is prioritizing cash flow and yield over the traditional safe-haven narrative.
(Source：CryptoSlate)