AI Pivot Won’t Save Everyone, Wintermute Tells Bitcoin Miners
Wintermute advises Bitcoin miners that the current cycle demands reinvention as infrastructure or treasury managers, as past price growth won't cover shrinking margins.Summary
A new report from Wintermute suggests that the current Bitcoin mining cycle is structurally different from previous ones, primarily because the post-halving price increase has been minimal (1.15x over four years) compared to historical 10x–20x returns. This means miners can no longer rely on bull markets to offset shrinking revenues due to the fixed block reward cut.
Gross margins have dropped significantly, peaking around 30%, which previously marked bear market bottoms, and transaction fees are not providing a reliable revenue backstop. While pivoting to high-performance computing (HPC) and AI workloads offers a lucrative path for miners with prime locations and capacity, Wintermute notes this opportunity is not available to everyone.
The firm strongly recommends that miners treat their Bitcoin treasuries—which total nearly 1% of the supply—as working assets rather than idle reserves. This involves using derivatives strategies like covered calls or participating in on-chain lending markets to generate yield. Ultimately, Wintermute concludes that the easy era for miners is over, and only those who adapt by becoming infrastructure providers or sophisticated treasury managers will survive the structural shift.
(Source：Bitcoin Magazine)