Bitcoin stays defensive below $70,000 as shallow demand limits upside, analysts say

Bitcoin is currently in a structurally defensive phase, trading between key cost-basis levels with rallies capped by significant overhead resistance, according to Glassnode analysts. The price is oscillating between the True Market Mean near $79,200 and the Realized Price around $55,000, indicating absorption of selling rather than momentum for expansion. Resistance is strong from supply clusters held at unrealized losses above $82,000, and short-term holder profitability is negative, suggesting fragile conviction.

Offchain factors reinforce caution, as digital asset treasury flows, including spot ETFs, have seen synchronized net outflows, with ETF redemptions being a major driver. Trading volume faded quickly after recent selloffs, and perpetual futures premiums have compressed, showing leveraged traders are stepping back. Options markets show persistent demand for downside protection, indicated by deeply negative 25-delta skew.

Analysts note that macroeconomic factors like the Fed's policy rate and high Treasury yields are not supporting risk assets, keeping sentiment in "Extreme Fear." While some institutions are tactically buying call options, spot demand is weak, suggesting Bitcoin may remain range-bound between $52,000 and $70,000 without a clear catalyst, despite some major banks offering divergent long-term outlooks.

(Source：The Block)