Why Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Faltered — and What Comes Next

Crypto market maker Wintermute argues that Bitcoin's traditional four-year cycle, characterized by gains flowing from BTC/ETH to altcoins, failed in 2025. This was due to a structural shift where liquidity concentrated in large-cap assets, largely driven by institutional inflows via ETFs, resulting in narrower market breadth and shorter altcoin rallies. Wintermute believes the 2026 recovery hinges on one of three outcomes: ETFs expanding mandates beyond BTC and ETH, major assets generating a significant wealth effect, or the return of retail investor attention, which is currently diverted to AI, equities, and commodities. The return of retail investors is complicated by institutional dominance and memories of recent bear markets, though some observers link their return to aggressive Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.

(Source：Cointelegraph)