Odds against Interest Rate Cuts High as New US Fed Chair to be Sworn in
Kevin Warsh is set to become the US Fed chair, with prediction markets showing declining confidence in imminent interest rate cuts.Summary
Kevin Warsh is scheduled to be sworn in as the new chair of the US Federal Reserve, facing significant pressure from President Donald Trump to lower interest rates. Despite Trump's public expectations for rate cuts, prediction markets like Kalshi show that the probability of a rate reduction before 2027 has plummeted to 38.2%. Financial indicators from CME FedWatch further suggest stability, with a nearly 99% probability that rates will remain unchanged through June. The transition has sparked scrutiny regarding Warsh's extensive personal investments in crypto and AI, as well as broader concerns about the future regulatory direction of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) regarding crypto assets and prediction markets.
(Source：Cointelegraph)