Sell-side pressure from long-term Bitcoin holders nears saturation: K33
K33 reports that sell-side pressure from long-term Bitcoin holders is nearing saturation after significant distribution since 2024.Summary
Research firm K33, via Head of Research Vetle Lunde, suggests that the prolonged sell-side pressure from long-term Bitcoin holders is approaching saturation. Since 2024, approximately 1.6 million BTC (valued at $138 billion) held in unspent outputs older than two years has been reactivated, indicating substantial distribution by early holders. Lunde argues this scale exceeds technical explanations like ETF conversions, pointing instead to direct selling enabled by deep institutional liquidity from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs. This distribution, which included large sales like an 80,000 BTC OTC deal by Galaxy, has reduced ownership concentration and established new price references. K33 anticipates this selling pressure will ease, predicting the two-year supply will stop declining by the end of 2026. Furthermore, they note potential short-term support from portfolio rebalancing as managers with fixed allocations may buy Bitcoin in late December/early January following its Q4 underperformance.
(Source：The Block)