Why Grayscale thinks Bitcoin will ignore the 4-year cycle this time

Grayscale argues that Bitcoin's price behavior is evolving past the predictable four-year cycle historically driven by halvings and retail speculation. This shift is attributed to three main factors: demand is now dominated by institutional capital via ETFs and corporate balance sheets, which brings in patient, long-term money rather than volatile retail trading; the recent price correction was controlled, resembling a standard bull-market pullback rather than a collapse; and the macro environment, including interest rate expectations and regulatory momentum, now influences Bitcoin more than the programmed supply shock of the halving.

Supporting data from Glassnode indicates structural changes, such as historically high long-term holder supply and reduced volatility during drawdowns, suggesting the market handles large moves more efficiently. Furthermore, significant Bitcoin amounts are moving into custody wallets tied to institutional products, reducing active circulating supply.

While some analysts still adhere to halving patterns based on fundamental supply cuts, Grayscale's view emphasizes that Bitcoin is maturing into a recognized part of the global financial landscape, requiring analysts to focus more on onchain metrics, liquidity trends, and institutional flows rather than fixed timing models.

(Source：Cointelegraph)