This Bitcoin-Led, Institutionally Anchored Cycle Shows the Three-Month Drop Isn’t a Winter: Glassnode

Glassnode and Fasanara Digital argue that Bitcoin's recent three-month price pullback is a mid-cycle reset rather than the start of a crypto winter. Their analysis highlights that Bitcoin has attracted over $732 billion in net new capital since the 2022 low, pushing realized cap to $1.1T, a metric that typically contracts during real winters. Furthermore, one-year realized volatility has significantly decreased, which is associated with deeper liquidity, contrasting with the volatility spikes seen at the onset of winters. Spot ETF holdings remain strong, representing 6.9% of circulating supply, and ETF flows have not turned negative as they do in downturns. Sector-wide miner performance, evidenced by the WGMI ETF being up over 35% while BTC dropped, also diverges from historical winter patterns. The drawdown itself aligns with historical mid-cycle deleveraging events seen in 2017, 2020, and 2023, suggesting a reset of positioning rather than a cycle end.

(Source：CoinDesk)