The Great HODL: How immobile supply shapes Bitcoin’s next real squeeze
Shifting on-chain dynamics, including long-term holder distribution and ETF outflows, are setting the stage for Bitcoin's next significant price movement.Summary
Bitcoin's recent price action around $101,000 reflects a tension between supply and demand driven by on-chain behavior. After months of accumulation, illiquid supply, which reached a multi-year high near 72% of circulating coins, has begun to decrease as long-term holders realize gains, leading to a market stall. The path to the next price squeeze depends on the mechanical interaction between fixed daily issuance (~450 BTC), the pace of long-term holder distribution, miner selling, and the absorption capacity of funds like U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs. Recent net outflows from ETFs and profit-taking by long-duration cohorts have increased the tradable float, capping rallies. A 'squeeze' scenario requires ETF demand to significantly outpace issuance plus distribution, tightening the available float. Traders should monitor the Illiquid Supply Change for signs of reaccumulation, the Short Term Holder realized price as support, and ETF flows relative to daily issuance to anticipate when the market will break out of its current range.
(Source：CryptoSlate)