Bitcoin bulls need 2 things: Positive BTC ETF flows and to reclaim $112,500
Bitcoin requires positive ETF flows and reclaiming the $112,500 short-term holder cost basis to reverse recent weakness.Summary
Bitcoin is currently trading around $101,328 after dipping below $100,000, signaling fading demand momentum and testing structural supports. According to Glassnode, a return to bullish footing requires two key reversals: US spot Bitcoin ETF flows must turn net positive after two weeks of outflows, and the price must reclaim and hold the Short-Term Holders’ cost basis at $112,500.
Structurally, Bitcoin has failed to hold above $112,500, meaning short-term holders are sitting on unrealized losses, increasing selling pressure. Furthermore, long-term holders have been quietly distributing supply, selling into weakness since July 2025, which adds significant sell-side pressure. Institutional demand has also cooled, evidenced by consistent net outflows from spot ETFs and negative cumulative volume delta across major exchanges, indicating sustained net selling.
The market is in a fragile equilibrium, with unrealized losses contained but conviction weakening due to ETF outflows and long-term holder selling. Until ETF flows become positive and Bitcoin reclaims $112,500 as firm support, bulls lack the necessary catalyst to overcome the current structural weakness.
(Source：CryptoSlate)