Bitcoin bear market OR bear trap? Here’s what your ‘quants’ are saying

Bitcoin's recent dip below $100,000 has unsettled traders, erasing its outperformance against US Treasuries for the year. Analysts suggest this is a structural reset rather than a collapse, driven by long-term holders realizing record profits—selling up to 9,000 BTC daily recently. This selling pressure, combined with weakening ETF demand and fading speculative activity (futures funding rates dropped 62% since August), coincides with tightening global liquidity due to the US government shutdown.

Analyst James Check identifies $95,000 as the critical psychological and structural support level, noting that 63% of invested capital carries a cost basis above this point. Historically, bear markets begin when unrealized losses exceed 10%; currently, they are around 3%. If BTC falls below $95k, sentiment could deteriorate significantly.

Experts remain divided: Check advises preparing for a bear market but expecting bulls to defend $95k. Conversely, Arthur Hayes attributes the decline to temporary dollar scarcity caused by Treasury issuance, expecting a reversal when liquidity returns. Matt Hougan of Bitwise remains long-term optimistic, framing the drop as retail capitulation while institutions quietly accumulate, stressing that while 100x returns are unlikely, BTC remains the best long-term asset.

(Source：CryptoSlate)