CryptoQuant says bitcoin profit-taking could increase further amid ‘bear market rally’

Onchain analytics firm CryptoQuant suggests that Bitcoin profit-taking could escalate following a recent price rally, which has seen Bitcoin increase by over 20% in April. Despite this surge, CryptoQuant's head of research, Julio Moreno, characterizes the move as a 'bear market rally.'

Data indicates that Bitcoin holders realized 14,600 BTC in daily profits on May 4, the highest since December 2025, and the Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH-SOPR) has remained above 1.00 since mid-April, signaling a period of broad profit-taking. On a 30-day rolling basis, holders are realizing over 20,000 BTC in net profits, a significant shift from the net losses experienced in February and March. However, these profit levels are still considerably lower than those historically associated with confirmed bull market transitions, reinforcing the 'bear market rally' classification.

While unrealized profit margins are currently around 18%, historically high unrealized profits can increase the likelihood of holders selling to lock in gains, thus raising correction risk. Nevertheless, a correction may be delayed due to supportive demand conditions, including strong perpetual futures demand, mild spot demand contraction, and muted exchange inflows. This combination suggests a rally with significant correction risk but not yet at a confirmed distribution peak.

(Source：The Block)