Bitcoin faces impending $45,000 sell-off catalyst as Powell, jobs report threaten fresh macro pressure
Bitcoin faces potential downside toward $45,000 as upcoming Fed commentary and the jobs report introduce significant macroeconomic uncertainty.Summary
Bitcoin is entering a critical week with on-chain models suggesting a potential bottom near $50,000 or slightly below, as short-term holder realized price bands have dropped sharply, aligning with other indicators suggesting a lower value zone for deep-value buyers.
However, underlying market stress is increasing, with long-term holders experiencing significant losses not seen since 2023, resembling patterns before previous sharp downturns. Market liquidity has also weakened, evidenced by negative stablecoin net flows and outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs, shifting the support burden away from institutional flows. Furthermore, mining economics are adding pressure, increasing the risk of treasury selling.
The path to recovery is projected to be slow, as historical drawdown analysis suggests a healing period of roughly 300 days for the current decline. The immediate focus shifts to macroeconomic data, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell's remarks and the March jobs report, which will determine if financial conditions stabilize or remain restrictive, ultimately dictating whether Bitcoin can hold its emerging support levels.
(Source：CryptoSlate)