Iran’s Top Power Broker Shares Trading Advice As Trump’s TACO Trade Falters

Iran's Parliament Speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, suggested that market participants should treat former President Trump's pre-market announcements as a "reverse indicator" and take the opposite side of energy trades. This advice comes as the 'TACO trade' (Trump Always Chickens Out), where traders bought every Trump-induced dip expecting a quick reversal, has collapsed due to escalating geopolitical risk involving Iran.

The breakdown of the TACO strategy is evidenced by Trump extending the deadline to strike Iranian energy infrastructure without the expected relief rally occurring. Economists note that repeated policy swings are undermining market confidence, leading to downgraded GDP forecasts and expectations of steady interest rates through late 2026, contrary to earlier predictions of rate cuts.

Ghalibaf, a key Iranian political figure, explicitly stated that pre-market 'news' is often a setup for profit-taking. Concurrently, economist Steve Hanke noted that 'bond vigilantes' have turned against Trump due to the tariff war and the conflict with Iran, pushing the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield toward 4.5%. Unlike previous trade disputes with rational actors like China or the EU, the conflict with Iran, which has seen the death of its Supreme Leader and continued military strikes, means the geopolitical risk premium is now a structural feature, not a temporary spike.

(Source：BeInCrypto)