Oil Price at $103 Meets a Bearish Brent Pattern, Is a Ceasefire Being Priced In?

Brent crude futures, trading near $103 after a 40% surge driven by geopolitical tensions, are showing signs of weakening momentum on the 4-hour chart, specifically a forming head and shoulders pattern coupled with bearish divergence in the Relative Strength Index (RSI).

This technical setup suggests that the market might be beginning to price in a de-escalation scenario, even as Iran rejected US talks. Further supporting this possibility is the market structure: while backwardation remains high, indicating immediate supply urgency, the structure implies traders expect this urgency to ease. Additionally, the strengthening US Dollar Index (DXY) could exert downward pressure on oil prices if the traditional inverse correlation reasserts itself.

Despite these bearish technical and macro signals, BNO positioning still leans bullish overall, though conviction is cooling as traders add downside protection. If the bearish pattern confirms, a projected correction could target levels down to $98.27 or even $72.62, but a close above $104.37 would invalidate the short-term bearish case.

(Source：BeInCrypto)