Prediction markets top $20 billion in monthly volume as geopolitics now drives majority of activity: TRM Labs
Prediction markets hit over $20 billion in monthly volume, driven primarily by geopolitical and U.S. political events, according to TRM Labs.Summary
Monthly transaction volume across prediction markets has surged past $20 billion for the first time, with unique wallets tripling to 840,000 in the six months leading up to February 2026, as reported by TRM Labs. Geopolitical events, macroeconomic outcomes, and U.S. political developments now constitute the majority of trading activity, surpassing crypto-native markets. Polymarket, a key platform analyzed, offers a consolidated experience where users trade diverse outcomes, though crypto price markets remain a small share of activity. The report also highlighted concerns about market manipulation, citing instances where coordinated wallets profited significantly from insider-like trading ahead of major news, leading both Kalshi and Polymarket to announce new integrity controls on March 23, 2026.
(Source：The Block)