Everyone's calling bitcoin (BTC) pricing resilient, may be it's just complacent: Crypto Daybook Americas
Bitcoin's low volatility amidst global turmoil suggests complacency rather than true resilience, potentially leading to a sharp correction.Summary
Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading in a tight range with surprisingly calm volatility indices despite significant geopolitical risks like the Iran war and rising inflation concerns signaled by surging oil prices and volatility in the U.S. Treasury market (MOVE index). While bulls interpret this as resilience, analysts suggest it might be complacency, as Bitcoin's implied volatility index (BVIV) has actually slipped 7%. This contrasts sharply with oil options, where calls are three times pricier than puts, indicating strong bullish positioning and expectations of future inflation shocks. TDX Strategies recommends hedging against this tail risk by accumulating gamma on select altcoins. The current market backdrop is tense, with Iran rejecting a U.S. peace plan, leading to a climbing dollar index, ticking up Treasury yields, and general risk aversion, as evidenced by Bitcoin being down 2.4% on the day.
(Source：CoinDesk)