Mizuho slashes Gemini price target by more than half as weaker trading outweighs card growth

Mizuho analysts have drastically reduced the price target for Gemini Space Station (GEMI) from $26 to $12, a cut of more than 50%, citing expectations that softer crypto asset prices and lower transaction volumes will constrain near-term revenue from its core exchange business. This downward revision contrasts with Mizuho's previous February assessment, which suggested the stock slump might have already factored in recent company challenges. Despite the weaker trading outlook leading to a roughly 24% reduction in the 2027 revenue estimate, the firm noted that Gemini's revenue mix is shifting, with services like its credit card expected to account for a larger portion (43% vs. 36% previously). The card product is a key growth driver, generating about $33 million in net revenue from over $1.2 billion in transaction volume in 2025. On the cost side, Mizuho sees potential support from Gemini's restructuring efforts, including a 30% headcount reduction and exiting certain international markets, which are projected to lower expenses by about 12% by 2027, alongside management-guided cuts in cash compensation.

(Source：The Block)