Bitcoin Turns Green Weekly as 23-Month Cycle Call Spreads—and Skeptics Push Back
Bitcoin posted its first weekly gain after five red weeks, fueling speculation about a bottom based on a 23-month cycle theory, despite skeptical counterarguments.Summary
Bitcoin recently recorded its first green weekly candle following five consecutive red weeks, suggesting a potential market recovery. This has bolstered the argument, popularized by analysts like Coinvo Trading and supported by Peter Brandt, that Bitcoin bottoms precisely 23 months after its All-Time High (ATH), a pattern that has historically held true. Since the recent ATH, 23 months have now elapsed, suggesting the bear market may have ended in February, with a recovery potentially starting soon. Further positive signals include a 6% rebound in total market capitalization and Google Trends data showing "Buy Bitcoin" searches at their highest level since 2021.
However, this optimistic view faces pushback from other analysts who cite historical on-chain data suggesting a sustainable recovery may require at least six more months. A key piece of contradictory evidence is the negative stablecoin net flows into exchanges in late February, indicating that buying pressure is currently insufficient. Leon Waidmann noted that major rallies are historically fueled by massive stablecoin inflows, which are currently absent.
Ultimately, while the market has shown signs of life, clearer confirmation is needed before declaring the bear market definitively over. Analysts suggest Bitcoin must reclaim and hold the $70,000 resistance level to sustain any upward movement.
(Source：BeInCrypto)