Bitcoin slides into worst profit cycle in history as 59% of supply turns red

Bitcoin is currently in its worst profit cycle since before 2016, indicated by various on-chain metrics showing a large portion of circulating supply is underwater. Analyst DurdenBTC reported that when BTC was near $68,000, only 44.2% of coins were in profit, a reading comparable only to major capitulation events like December 2018 and the FTX collapse. This disparity in profitability metrics—with some trackers showing around 51% in profit while others show much lower—is attributed to the difference between measuring the entire UTXO set versus only coins that have recently moved. The current price around $63,275 sits below key cost basis zones, creating overhead supply from recent buyers looking to break even. This environment of high nominal price but low profitability suggests quiet capitulation, where rallies face immediate selling pressure. Market analysis points to a critical demand zone between $60,000 and $69,000, which must be reclaimed for any recovery narrative to gain traction. Furthermore, softening allocator demand, significant stablecoin withdrawals from exchanges, and tight miner economics add pressure, suggesting capital is currently in a defensive posture.

(Source：CryptoSlate)