Bitcoin ETFs will go to zero sooner than we think if outflows don’t slow down as $8.5B leaves since October
If current US spot Bitcoin ETF outflow rates persist, the funds could effectively drain by early 2030, or significantly diminish by the next halving.Summary
Despite massive cumulative net inflows of about $54.31 billion into US spot Bitcoin ETFs since their launch, recent activity shows significant weakness. Since Bitcoin's October peak, $8.66 billion has flowed out over 89 trading days, indicating that institutions are selling rapidly during market drawdowns. Analyst Eric Balchunas noted that while the overall picture is positive, the recent outflows suggest shifting conviction.
If the current average daily outflow rate of about $90 million continues, the ETFs could see their assets under management (AUM) effectively drained in roughly 1,011 trading days, pointing toward early January 2030. Stress-testing this against the next Bitcoin halving (estimated April 2028), the AUM could drop to around $44 billion. If net inflows grind down to zero entirely based on the post-October pace, the ETFs could be effectively drained around mid-2028.
The article suggests monitoring daily ETF flows, CME futures participation (which has significantly contracted), and the price discount of Coinbase relative to Binance as key indicators. Ultimately, the existence of this public ETF scoreboard means sustained selling pressure could severely undermine the narrative around Bitcoin's institutional adoption.
(Source：CryptoSlate)