Why Bitcoin Is Trading Like a Tech Stock — Not Digital Gold
Bitcoin's price movements closely track US software stocks, suggesting it acts as a growth asset influenced by private credit stress, not digital gold.Summary
Recent data, including a Grayscale report, shows a strong correlation between Bitcoin's price and high-growth US software stocks since early 2024, indicating BTC is behaving like a growth asset rather than 'digital gold.' This synchronization suggests that broad derisking of growth-oriented portfolios, rather than crypto-specific issues, is driving recent sell-offs. Furthermore, selling pressure appears concentrated among US investors, evidenced by Bitcoin trading at a discount on Coinbase relative to Binance and net outflows from US-listed Bitcoin ETPs. A deeper underlying cause is linked to the $3 trillion private credit industry, which heavily lends to software companies. Concerns over AI development potentially disrupting software firms and increasing loan defaults (UBS warns of up to 13% default rates) are stressing private credit. When private credit tightens, it negatively impacts software stocks, which subsequently spills over into the crypto market, explaining why Bitcoin decoupled from global liquidity in mid-2025.
(Source：BeInCrypto)