Bitcoin’s Most Dangerous Setups Formed Days Before October 10 Crash: How to Spot it Next Time

The article analyzes the structural weaknesses preceding two major 2025 Bitcoin liquidation events—the October 10 long liquidation cascade ($19B) and the April 23 short squeeze ($600M)—to help readers spot future risks. The October crash, triggered by tariff headlines, was preceded by rapid price extension, soaring Open Interest (OI), rising Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) indicating profit-taking, and a quick flip in Short-Term Holder NUPL from loss to profit, all while exchange inflows remained low, concentrating risk in derivatives. Similarly, the April short squeeze followed a period of selling exhaustion (SOPR near 1), persistently negative funding rates, and declining exchange outflows, indicating weak spot accumulation against crowded short positions.

Experts note that liquidations are accelerants, not the ignition, revealing where risk was mispriced. Key warning signs common to both events, emerging 7–20 days prior, included rising OI alongside weakening spot flows, strongly one-sided funding rates, and rapid shifts in STH-NUPL. These patterns indicate a structurally weak market dependent on leverage, making it vulnerable to external catalysts, regardless of whether the market is at a top or bottom.

(Source：BeInCrypto)