Crypto market bottom is closer than you think as Bitcoin miner reserves crash to historic lows
Bitcoin miner reserves are at historic lows, suggesting the market bottom may be near despite mixed on-chain signals.Summary
The article argues that focusing solely on Bitcoin ETF flows provides an incomplete picture of the market cycle, urging a look at on-chain data, particularly miner behavior. Bitcoin miner reserves have fallen to about 1.801 million BTC, with a steady sell-off over the last 60 days, indicating financial pressure on the mining sector. While the Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) remains positive (around 0.215), suggesting the market hasn't hit full capitulation territory (below zero), the percentage of UTXOs in profit is already near levels seen at prior bear market troughs (around 71% currently vs. 60% in 2023). This suggests significant damage has been front-loaded. The author outlines three potential paths: a frustrating choppy range, classic capitulation if NUPL breaks below zero, or an early bottom if ETF flows reverse soon. The combination of depleted miner reserves and elevated UTXOs in profit suggests the market may be closer to exhaustion than flow data alone indicates, but the lack of confirmed NUPL capitulation means caution is still warranted.
(Source：CryptoSlate)