Bitcoin ETF flow numbers are fundamentally broken and most traders are missing the specific sign of a crash

The article argues that simply looking at the net total flows for US spot Bitcoin ETFs is fundamentally flawed and can mislead traders, especially during volatile periods. For instance, on January 30th, a large net outflow was dominated by a single fund (IBIT), while other funds still saw inflows, indicating dispersion. The author stresses the importance of tracking primary market creation/redemption versus secondary market trading, as large redemptions can skew total numbers even if underlying demand persists. True broad-based demand is signaled when inflows are spread across multiple leading funds, as seen on February 2nd. Conversely, concentrated outflows, like those seen on February 4th, often correlate with significant price drops. Traders should analyze dispersion by asking how concentrated outflows are, how many funds are green, and whether these patterns repeat, rather than treating every green print as fresh conviction, as small inflows can be due to scheduled rebalancing or internal switching.

(Source：CryptoSlate)