Bitcoin bear market ends when 3 signals flip, and one is already starting to twitch

Analysts, including Julio Moreno of CryptoQuant, suggest Bitcoin is in a bear market that could last through Q3 2026, despite institutional investors maintaining or increasing exposure. The traditional 20% drop threshold has been met, but analysts rely on a three-part dashboard: price trend (currently below 365-day MA), positioning/derivatives (bearish skew), and demand/liquidity (weak demand, contracting stablecoin liquidity). The end of this bear market is defined by a regime shift signaled by three triggers: reclaiming and holding long-term moving averages (trend reclamation), sustained inflows into ETPs (demand inflection), and normalization of options skew (risk appetite normalization). Scenarios range from a classic winter extending into late 2026 to a shorter, shallower 3-6 month choppy period, or a variable end based purely on liquidity acceleration, suggesting the old four-year cycle is obsolete. The current drawdown is smaller than historical extremes, reflecting a K-shaped market where Bitcoin holds structural leadership.

(Source：CryptoSlate)