Bitcoin Continues to Decouple From Global M2 in Early 2026 as Analysts Remain Divided

Since mid-2025, Bitcoin has shown increasing decoupling from the growth of the global M2 money supply, a trend that has intensified in early 2026, leading to a division among analysts regarding its meaning. Fidelity Digital Assets maintains a bullish stance, arguing that renewed global monetary easing and the end of the Fed's QT program will act as positive catalysts, aligning with historical correlations where Bitcoin absorbs excess capital. Analyst MartyParty even predicted a price rebound to catch up with lagged M2 growth. Conversely, skeptical analysts point to the widening divergence—Bitcoin showing negative year-over-year growth while M2 grows over 10%—suggesting this decoupling historically signals a major market top followed by a multi-year bear market. Another explanation, proposed by Charles Edwards, attributes the decoupling to the increased risk of quantum computing breaking Bitcoin's cryptography, suggesting money is repositioning based on this technological threat. The market also faces external risks like the yen carry trade and geopolitical instability, though many long-term believers maintain Bitcoin's status as a store of value.

(Source：BeInCrypto)