Bitcoin Looks Locked in a Mid-Cycle Reset as On-Chain Data Stabilizes

Despite recent analyst concerns about a bear market, five key data points indicate Bitcoin is undergoing a mid-cycle reset following its late 2025 rally highs. The sharp selling in US Bitcoin ETFs, which saw over $1.1 billion exit in a few sessions, is interpreted as a capitulation or washout of late buyers who bought near all-time highs, not long-term distribution. This selling pressure is exhausting itself, and ETF flows are stabilizing. Critically, the average realized price for ETF holders is near $86,000, acting as a structural support level around the current $88,000 to $92,000 trading range. Furthermore, BlackRock's significant BTC and ETH transfers to Coinbase Prime are attributed to the mechanics of ETF redemptions, not institutional selling. The negative Coinbase Premium Index shows US institutional demand has paused, consistent with a reset where weaker hands are flushed out. Finally, while exchange netflows are high, the price holding steady suggests this supply is being absorbed by stronger holders. The outlook remains constructive as long as Bitcoin holds above the $86,000 ETF cost basis, potentially leading to consolidation and a test of $95,000 or $100,000 later in the quarter.

(Source：BeInCrypto)