Monero’s 35% Rally Faces Long-Squeeze Risk — But That’s Not the Only Threat
Monero's recent 35% rally faces risks from slowing capital flow, overbought momentum, and heavily crowded long positions that could trigger a sharp sell-off.Summary
Monero (XMR) recently surged over 35%, hitting an all-time high near $598 before facing selling pressure. While the trend appears strong, underlying indicators suggest fragility. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) shows a divergence, trending lower while price rose, explaining the initial selling. Furthermore, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in overbought territory, similar to levels seen before a 33% correction in November.
This rally is heavily sentiment-driven, with social sentiment spiking over 400% and exchange outflows (net buying) doubling recently. However, the current sentiment peak mirrors historical exhaustion points. The most significant threat is derivatives positioning: long liquidation leverage ($22.1M) heavily outweighs short liquidation leverage ($5.4M) on Bybit, creating a substantial risk for a long squeeze if support near $554 breaks.
For the rally to continue, Monero needs a decisive daily close above the $593–$598 zone to neutralize liquidation risks. Otherwise, a slip could trigger cascading liquidations toward $502, $454, or even $411.
(Source：BeInCrypto)