Bitcoin’s Next Parabolic Rally Hinges On A Key Data Point
Bitcoin's potential next rally depends on the stabilization of selling pressure from long-term holders after a historic distribution phase.Summary
Bitcoin experienced one of its most aggressive long-term holder (LTH) distribution phases in 2025, where approximately $300 billion worth of BTC moved, marking a historic supply reset. On-chain analysis of past cycles (2018, 2020-2021, 2024-2025) shows that heavy LTH selling typically occurs near cycle peaks or during structural transitions, often preceding a market bottom or consolidation rather than marking the end of a trend.
Since December 2025, the LTH supply has stopped falling, currently stabilizing around 13.6 million BTC, coinciding with Bitcoin entering a sideways range. This stabilization, coupled with the long-term/short-term holder supply ratio dropping below -0.5, historically signals a base-building phase or an imminent rally. If this pattern repeats, the current consolidation period through Q1 and Q2 could set the foundation for a sustained rally emerging later, potentially in Q3.
(Source：Cointelegraph)