Will a Supreme Court Ruling Against Trump Cause a Bitcoin Crash?

Bitcoin, trading near $90,000, faces a macro test as the U.S. Supreme Court is expected to rule soon on the legality of global tariffs imposed by President Trump in early 2025 under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. Lower courts had ruled Trump exceeded his authority, and the Supreme Court heard arguments in November, with a decision potentially coming on January 9.

If the tariffs are struck down, over $133.5 billion in duties could be subject to refunds, creating fiscal uncertainty. While tariffs do not directly affect Bitcoin's network, macro shocks often ripple through risk assets like crypto, causing sell-offs when risk appetite fades. Social media warnings suggest a negative ruling could cause chaos by forcing markets to price in refund obligations and retaliation risks simultaneously.

Prediction markets suggest a high probability (76%) that the court will invalidate the tariffs. For Bitcoin, the immediate risk is volatility; a sharp risk-off move could push prices lower, especially since BTC is still below key resistance levels. Ultimately, the larger question is whether the ruling reshapes the broader macro backdrop for Bitcoin.

(Source：Bitcoin Magazine)