Liquidity lifts Bitcoin (BTC), but ‘halving cycle’ fears could limit rally in 2026, says Schwab

According to Jim Ferraioli, director of crypto research and strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research, Bitcoin's price in 2026 is influenced by three long-term factors (global M2 money supply, disinflationary supply growth, and adoption) and seven short-term drivers. Currently, short-term factors like tight credit spreads and the end of quantitative tightening support a 'risk-on' environment for crypto. Ferraioli anticipates lower interest rates and a weaker U.S. dollar, further boosting liquidity. However, headwinds exist, including potentially slowing adoption in the first half of the year unless regulatory clarity, like the passage of the Clarity Act, improves institutional interest. Furthermore, Ferraioli warns that the third year following a Bitcoin halving has historically been weak, which could temper price action, suggesting 2026 returns may fall short of the historical 70% gain from the annual low. He also expects Bitcoin's correlation with broader equity indexes to decrease.

(Source：CoinDesk)