Copper, gold and BTC: A macro signal to watch
The rising copper-to-gold ratio, signaling risk-on sentiment, historically aligns with key turning points in Bitcoin cycles.Summary
The copper-to-gold ratio, a key macro indicator reflecting economic momentum and investor risk appetite, is breaking higher, which has historically coincided with significant turning points in Bitcoin cycles. Copper performs well during economic expansion (risk-on), while gold is a defensive asset favored during uncertainty (risk-aversion). A rising ratio signals risk-on sentiment, and major peaks in the ratio have aligned with Bitcoin cycle highs in 2013, 2017, and 2021. More critically for Bitcoin, reversals in the ratio have often preceded major rallies, especially when coinciding with Bitcoin halving cycles. Following the April 2024 halving, the ratio has shifted upward from its October low, with copper hitting record highs and gold trading near its peak. If this strength reflects improving growth expectations, the resulting risk-on signal could support a Bitcoin rally in 2026.
(Source：CoinDesk)